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What’s Israel-Hamas war’s impact on global economic outlook?

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1 year ago

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After indicating increased optimism about controlling global inflation brought on by the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the start of a war in the Middle East may force central bankers to battle fresh inflationary trends and inflict a hit on economic confidence.

Israel on Sunday officially declared a state of war after a surprise attack by Hamas a day earlier, resulting in hundreds of deaths adding to the sense of global instability caused by Russian military actions almost 20 months ago.

So far, the impact of the Israel-Gaza war on global inflation remains unclear as it depends on how long the conflict lasts, how intense it becomes, and whether it spreads to other parts of the region.

“It’s too early to say what the implications may be, though oil and equity markets may see immediate fallout,” Agustin Carstens, general manager of the Bank for International Settlements, said in a presentation to the National Association for Business Economics (NABE).

However, the war has the potential to add an unpredictable set of dynamics to a weakening global economy.

Additionally, it may also affect US markets that are still adjusting to the possibility that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates high for longer than many investors had anticipated, Reuters reported.

“Any source of economic uncertainty delays decision-making, increases risk premia, and especially given that region…there is an apprehension about where oil is going to open,” said Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist with Northern Trust.

“The markets will also be following what the scenarios are looking like,” he said, and whether, after decades of instability in the Middle East, this outbreak of violence evolves differently.

“The question will be is this iteration something that will throw the long-term equilibrium out of balance?”

That and related issues will likely vault high on the agenda of global financial leaders gathering this week in Morocco for meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank to take stock of a global economy that remains in a deep state of flux from the pandemic and rising trade tensions.

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In interbank trade, the Pakistani rupee beats the US dollar.

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6 days ago

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In the international exchange market, the US dollar has continued to weaken in relation to the Pakistani rupee.

The dollar fell to Rs278.10 from Rs278.17 at the beginning of interbank trading, according to currency dealers, a seven paisa loss.

In the meantime, there was a lot of turbulence in the stock market, but it recovered and moved into the positive zone. The KSE-100 index recovered momentum and reached 116,000 points after soaring 1,300 points.

Both currency and stock market swings, according to analysts, are a reflection of ongoing market adjustments and economic uncertainty.

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Phase II of CPEC: China-Pakistan Partnership Enters a New Era

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The cornerstone of economic cooperation between the two brothers and all-weather friends is still the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the initiative’s flagship project.

In contrast to reports of a slowdown, recent events indicate a renewed vigour and strategic emphasis on pushing the second phase of CPEC, known as CPEC Phase-2, according to the Ministry of Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives.

According to the statement, this crucial stage seeks to reshape the foundation of bilateral ties via increased cooperation, cutting-edge technology transfer, and revolutionary socioeconomic initiatives.

Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal is leading Pakistan’s participation in a number of high-profile gatherings in China, such as the 3rd Forum on China-Indian Ocean Region Development Cooperation in Kunming and the High-Level Seminar on CPEC-2 in Beijing.

His involvement demonstrates Pakistan’s commitment to reviving CPEC, resolving outstanding concerns, and developing a strong phase-2 roadmap that considers both countries’ long-term prosperity.

At the core of these interactions is China’s steadfast determination to turn CPEC into a strategic alliance that promotes development, progress, and connectivity.

Instead of being marginalised, CPEC is developing into a multifaceted framework with five main thematic corridors: the Opening-Up/Regional Connectivity Corridor, the Innovation Corridor, the Green Corridor, the Growth Corridor, and the Livelihood-Enhancing Corridor.

With the help of projects like these, the two countries will fortify their partnership, and CPEC phase-2 will become a model of global economic integration and collaboration that benefits not just China and Pakistan but the entire region.

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The inflation rate in Pakistan dropped to its lowest level.

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On December 2, core inflation as determined by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) significantly slowed, falling to 4.9% in November 2024 from 7.2 percent in October 2024.

The CPI-based inflation rate for the same month last year (November 2023) was 29.2%, according to PBS data.

Compared to a 1.2% gain in the prior month, it increased by 0.5% month over month in November 2024.

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