With the rupee falling to new lows, stakeholders are concerned that the weakening currency could open up Pakistanis to a new round of inflationary impact, which will hit the lower and middle classes the hardest.
No sector of the economy would be immune from the fallout of the steep devaluation of the local currency — which has lost about 20% this year, among the worst performers in the world.
The rupee has gained and lost value in the past and it will do so in the future as well but this time the curve has maintained its upward trend since quite a few months now.
Economists Ankur Shukla and Abhishek Gupta, in an analysis given on Bloomberg Economics, have compiled the reason why the Pakistani rupee was so weak.
The analysts said that the capital is fleeing Pakistan because there is a growing risk that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will not deliver a bailout, which is needed for the country to avoid default in the fiscal year starting from July. They suspected that political unrest was probably one of the reasons the Fund was baulking as the aid has been stalled since November.
They also pointed out the impact of political tumult on the rupee, stating that the country’s leadership has been unstable since Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman Imran Khan was ousted as the prime minister via a no-confidence motion vote in April last year.
“Khan’s arrest this month has escalated the face-off between him and the government, as well as the army,” they noted, recalling that the rupee plunged to a record low of 299 per dollar after Khan’s jailing but recouped its losses and settled at 285 after his release.
Warnings of a massive drop in the rupee are flaring up, with some analysts forecasting another 20% decline is possible. Both economist also cautioned that the currency will likely fall further if Khan and the government continue to clash and if the IMF chooses not to provide loans.
Adil Ghaffar, chief executive officer at Premier Financial Services Pvt in Karachi also told Bloomberg that therupee may slump to as low as 350 per dollar in June if Pakistan fails to secure the loan.
“The rupee trajectory remains subject to considerable uncertainty as market sentiment is fragile,” Farooq Pasha, an economist in Karachi, said, adding that politics will remain the key risk in the near-term until the elections.
Moreover, bond investors are also growing more nervous, with the extra yield they demand to hold Pakistan’s dollar bonds over US Treasuries climbing above 35% points to a record this month.
Pakistan’s dollar bonds are trading at distressed levels, with notes due in 2031 quoted at about 34 cents on the dollar.
The country’s dollar stockpile, which stood at $4.3 billion in mid-May, is also not enough to cover even one month of imports despite heavy restrictions.
The Foreign Minister/Deputy Prime Minister chaired the Cabinet Committee on Privatization meeting.
Other committee members who attended the conference included the Federal Secretaries of several Divisions, the Ministers of Finance and Revenue, Industry and Food, Commerce, Power, and Privatization.
The CCOP took the PC Board’s recommendation into consideration and suggested that Blue World’s bid of 10 billion rupees for the sale of 60% of PIACL’s shares be rejected. The bid was rejected by the CCOP, who chose to follow the PC Board’s advice.
The government’s determination to sell out PIACL through government-to-government or privatization was reaffirmed by the CCOP.
The CCOP was pleased with the Aviation Division’s evaluation of PIACL’s sound financial standing.
Additionally, the CCOP established a committee, chaired by the Minister of State for Finance, to assess potential transaction possibilities for the privatization of the Roosevelt Hotel and the appropriate modes of adoption in light of existing legal rules.
Prior to its subsequent meeting, the CCOP also ordered that all difficulties be resolved and an agreement for the selling of services to an international hotel be concluded.
The benchmark KSE-100 Index increased by 790 points, marking a new all-time high for the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) at 94,982 points.
The record-breaking performance underscores a surge of optimism and investor confidence in the stock market.
As investors responded to favorable economic signals, the market experienced a significant increase of over 500 points in early trading. Later, the KSE-100 Index reached another record level of 94,786 points after adding 594 points to its upward trajectory.
This positive development comes as the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) foreign exchange reserves saw an increase of $84 million, reaching $11.26 billion during the week ending November 8, according to data released by the central bank on Thursday.
This represents an increase of 0.75% from the previous week. In addition, the nation’s total liquid foreign reserves experienced a modest increase, increasing by $33.7 million or 0.21% week-on-week to $15.97 billion.
In contrast, commercial banks’ reserves experienced a decline of $50.3 million or 1.06%, ultimately settling at $4.71 billion.
Furthermore, the economic team of Pakistan has expressed confidence in the discussions with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Minister of State for Finance Ali Pervaiz Malik, in an exclusive conversation with Samaa TV, claimed talks were moving in a positive direction.
Highlighting improvements in Pakistan’s economic conditions, Malik noted substantial progress over the past six months to a year. He emphasized that Pakistan’s current economic situation has seen significant enhancement, with a reduced current account deficit of only $100 million in the first quarter, a reflection of the government’s strategy to increase remittances and boost exports.
Malik shared that discussions with the IMF are primarily focused on external financing, and while there have been speculations about a potential mini-budget or an increase in the petroleum levy, he clarified that these are currently premature considerations.
As a result of investors’ optimism about the reported progress in the continuing talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) experienced a robust surge.
The benchmark KSE-100 Index of the PSX, which tracks market sentiment, rose 713 points to a new record high of 94,068 points, breaking above the 94,000-point barrier, as the trading session began.
Early in the day, the stock market began its upward trajectory as the KSE-100 Index steadily rose, gaining 574 points to reach 93,932 points. A possible agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) might lead to more fiscal stability and back Pakistan’s economic reforms, which is why investors are so optimistic about the country’s future.
Officials from the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) informed the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday that the government would not be introducing a mini-budget and would instead continue to aim to collect Rs12,970 billion in taxes each year.
In line with continuing discussions with the Fund, FBR sources revealed that petroleum goods will not be subject to the General Sales Tax (GST).
The fact that Pakistan’s tax-to-GDP ratio has increased from 8.8% to 10.3%, a 1.5% gain viewed as a favorable sign of Pakistan’s fiscal policies, has reportedly pleased the IMF, who has voiced satisfaction at Pakistan’s recent economic performance.