Business

‘The worst is yet to come’: the curse of high inflation

Published

2 years ago

Farwa

Globally, people are experiencing inflation at levels not seen for decades as prices surge for essentials like food, heating, transport and accommodation. And though a peak could be in sight, the effects may yet get worse.

How did we get here? In two words: pandemic and war.

A long and comfortable period of scant inflation and low-interest rates ended abruptly after COVID-19 struck, as governments and central banks kept locked-down businesses and households afloat with trillions of dollars of support.

That lifeline kept workers from joining dole queues, businesses from going broke and house prices from crashing. But it also knocked supply and demand out of kilter as never before.

By 2021, as lockdowns ended and the global economy grew at its fastest post-recession pace in 80 years, all that stimulus money overwhelmed the world’s trading system.

Factories that had been idled could not ratchet up fast enough to meet demand, COVID-safe rules caused labour shortages in retail, transport and healthcare, and the recovery boom caused a spike in energy prices.

If that wasn’t enough, Russia invaded Ukraine in February and Western sanctions on the major oil and gas exporter sent fuel prices yet higher.

Why it matters

Known as a “tax on the poor” because it hits those on low incomes the hardest, double-digit inflation has exacerbated inequalities worldwide. While wealthier consumers can rely on savings built up during pandemic lockdowns, others struggle to make ends meet and a growing number rely on food banks.

With winter setting in across the northern hemisphere, that squeeze on living costs will tighten as fuel bills soar. Workers have taken strike action in sectors from healthcare to aviation to demand that wages keep pace with inflation. In most cases, they are having to settle for less.

Cost of living concerns dominate the politics of rich nations – in some cases relegating other priorities, such as climate change action.

While recent falls in gasoline prices have eased some of the pressure, inflation remains a top focus for US President Joe Biden’s administration. France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Olaf Scholz are stretching their budgets to channel billions of euros into support programmes.

But if things are tough in industrialised economies, rocketing food prices are worsening poverty and suffering in poorer countries, from Haiti to Sudan and Lebanon to Sri Lanka.

The World Food Programme estimates an extra 70 million people worldwide have been driven closer to starvation since the start of the Ukraine war in what it calls a “tsunami of hunger”.

What does it mean for 2023?

The world’s central banks have embarked on steep interest rate hikes to cool demand and tame inflation. By the end of 2023, the International Monetary Fund expects global inflation to have fallen to 4.7% – just less than half its current level.

The aim is for a “soft landing” in which the cooling-off happens without housing market crashes, business bankruptcies or surging joblessness. But such a best-case scenario has proven elusive in past encounters with high inflation.

From US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell to the European Central Bank’s Christine Lagarde, there is growing talk that rate-hike medicine may taste bitter. On top of that, risks surrounding the big uncertainties – the Ukraine war, tensions between China and the West – are skewed to the downside.

The IMF’s regular October outlook was one of the bleakest for years, stating: “In short, the worst is yet to come and for many people, 2023 will feel like a recession.”

Business

Petrol prices are expected to experience another increase in Pakistan.

Published

21 hours ago

Farwa

The inflation-affected nation is expected to encounter another increase in petrol prices, with recommendations indicating a rise of Rs. 2.58 per litre for petrol and Rs. 5.91 per litre for high-speed diesel.

Sources indicate that, if sanctioned, petrol prices will ascend to Rs. 250.96 per litre, whereas high-speed diesel will be priced at Rs. 261.05 per litre.

Sources indicated that the suggested increase is due to the elevated premium on petroleum products in the worldwide market and rising import expenses.

The premium on imported petroleum products has increased, leading the government to contemplate pricing modifications effective November 16, sources indicated.

On October 31, the federal government published the prices of petroleum products for the upcoming fortnight, increasing the prices of petrol and high-speed diesel.

A notification announced an increase in petrol price by Rs 1.35, raising it to Rs 248.38 a litre. The price of high-speed diesel was fixed at Rs 255.14 per litre after an increase of Rs 3.85.

Also read: Pakistan’s weekly inflation jumps to 15.02pc

Simultaneously, the costs of light diesel and kerosene oil were reduced. The statement states that kerosene oil is priced at Rs 148.5 per litre following a reduction of Rs 4.92.

The cost of light fuel was reduced by Rs 2.61 to Rs 147.51 per litre.

The rampant hike in the prices came at the time when the weekly inflation, measured by the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI), witnessed an increase of 0.28 percent for the combined consumption groups during the week ended on October 17, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported.

According to the PBS data, the SPI for the week under review in the above-mentioned group was recorded at 319.79 points as compared to 318.91 points during the past week.

In comparison to the same week last year, the SPI for the combined consumption group during the reviewed week experienced a 15.02 percent increase.

The weekly SPI with the base year 2015-16 =100 covers 17 urban centres and 51 essential items for all expenditure groups.

Likewise, SPI for the lowest consumption group of up to Rs 17,732 witnessed increase of 0.27 percent and went up to 313.74 points from last week’s 312.91 points.

Business

PIA Privatization Is Referred to the Cabinet Committee by the Privatization Commission Board Meeting

Published

21 hours ago

Farwa

The privatization of Pakistan International Airlines has been referred to a cabinet committee by the Privatization Commission Board.

Aleem Khan, the Federal Minister for Privatization and Communications, presided over the board meeting, which examined and accepted proposals on a number of topics, including the privatization of Pia.

The government would move forward with privatization in line with the law and in Pakistan’s best interests, Federal Minister Aleem Khan reaffirmed.

He added that the entire privatization process for the PITA and other state agencies would be expedited and simplified.

Following prequalification, the Privatization Commission is unable to remove any department or institution from Privatization, as was decided during the meeting.

Additionally, the Federal Minister directed that the pre-qualifying conditions and privatization be made more profitable.

Members of the Privatization Commission will be included in the Privatization Process through a three-member committee.

Business

Gas production from the Dera Bugti well commences at 5 MMSCFD.

Published

21 hours ago

Farwa

Dera Bugti, Balochistan is home to a freshly drilled well that the Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL) has started producing gas from.

The natural gas output of Pakistan has been significantly boosted by this breakthrough.

A letter sent by OGDCL to the Pakistan Stock Exchange states that the well is generating five million standard cubic feet of gas each day, which is quite an astounding amount.

The Uch Gas Processing Plant has been effectively connected with the gas output, which will help distribute and streamline the increased gas supply. The Dera Bugti well is fully owned by OGDCL, the biggest exploration and production company in the country, as stated in its letter to the PSX.

In response to a decline in power demand, Pakistan opted to divert its imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to local users on November 12th.

This article also discusses Pakistan’s decision to use imported LNG for domestic use.

The Ministry of Petroleum has estimated that an amount of Rs163 billion will be necessary to fund the supply of LNG to households in the country. According to sources, the pressure on pipelines is continuously increasing due to the imported LNG.

Confirmation from reliable sources indicates that 600 MMcfd of LNG has been consumed by the power industry. Since captive power facilities are being shut down, there will be an excess of 150MMcfd of LNG, and the gas industry is also making 400 billion rupees from captive electricity.

To solve the problem of circular debt, the government intends to raise gas pricing and do away with the tariff differential between domestic gas and LNG imports.

There is a current tariff of Rs1,550 per MMcfd on domestic gas and Rs3,500 per MMcfd on imported LNG. The government hopes to earn Rs200 billion by removing this tariff difference. As a part of the larger strategy to raise government revenue, the tariff for fertiliser firms will also be hiked.