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Public debt up by 22% to nearly Rs60tr in July 2023

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  • Total debt up by 22.11% year-on-year to Rs61.75 trillion.
  • Total govt debt was Rs50.57 trillion in July 2022.
  • Month-on-month debt increased by 1.49%.

KARACHI: The federal government’s total debt surged to nearly Rs60 trillion, primarily attributed to borrowing from domestic and foreign sources to cover the fiscal deficit, The News reported Wednesday. 

The total debt of the government was up by 22.11% year-on-year to Rs61.75 trillion in July 2023, compared to Rs50.57 trillion in July 2022, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) data showed on Tuesday.

On a sequential basis, the debt of the government witnessed an increase of 1.49% month-on-month compared to Rs60.84 trillion in June 2023. The increase in debt burden is primarily attributed to borrowing from domestic and foreign sources to cover the fiscal deficit.

The central bank data showed the larger portion of the debt was domestically clocked in at Rs39.02 trillion, signifying a growth of 24.08% year-on-year, comprising Rs29.59 trillion long-term debt and Rs9.29 trillion short-term debt while the remaining Rs22.73 trillion was external.

By the end of July 2023, the government’s long-term debt increased by 24.44% year-on-year to Rs29.59 trillion as compared to Rs23.78 trillion recorded in the same period a year ago. Similarly, the short-term debt jumped by 27.14% year-on-year as opposed to Rs7.31 trillion in July 2022.

Within the long-term domestic debt, the Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs) accounted for Rs22.06 trillion, up by 27.40% year-on-year. Meanwhile, in the short-term domestic debt, Market Treasury Bills (MTBs) amounted to Rs9.22 trillion, up by 27.14% YoY.

Borrowing through Naya Pakistan Certificates (NPCs) has risen by 26.71% YoY to stand at Rs139 billion in July 2023. A breakup of the government’s external debt shows that nearly Rs22.67 trillion came from long-term loans while Rs65.2 billion came from short-term loans.

The country’s total debt and liabilities rose by 29% to Rs77.1 trillion in the last fiscal year of 2022/23. 

At the end of the last fiscal year, the country’s debt and liabilities, including domestic and foreign, totalled Rs77.104 trillion, up from Rs59.772 trillion the year before. 

The total debt and liabilities as a percentage of GDP increased to 91.1% in 2022/23. The nation’s debt rose 28.4% to Rs72.991 trillion, while the liabilities increased 34.6% to Rs4.587 trillion in FY2023.

To finance its expanding budget deficit and to cover the cost of repaying its domestic debt, the government borrowed heavily from domestic sources, namely commercial banks. 

The government borrows funds from commercial lenders, multilateral institutions, the Paris Club, and international financial institutions to meet budget deficits, finance the current account gaps, and build up foreign exchange reserves. 

However, a steep decline in the value of the local currency caused the amount of foreign debt to rise, reaching Rs32.495 trillion in FY2023. The rupee’s value fell by 41% during the last fiscal year.

In July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a fresh $3 billion bailout for Pakistan’s struggling economy, which had been dangerously near to defaulting on its debt. 

The IMF and friendly nations provided the country with $4.2 billion in financial support in July. The country received inflows of $2.0 billion from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, $1.2 billion from the IMF, and $1 billion from the United Arab Emirates.

Analysts said that it appears that the government’s budgetary borrowings remained high this year and the country’s projected FX inflows from bilateral and multilateral sources will be the only way to cover its gross external funding needs.

The SBP anticipates that the foreign exchange reserves will rise to $12 billion by the end of this fiscal year, although the reserves could fall if there is significant pressure on the current account.

Due to anticipated increases in debt servicing expenses amid the high-interest rate environment in the nation, our budget deficit appears to be on an upward trend. Imports have not yet been fully opened, but if they are, tax revenues will increase.

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Positive IMF negotiations propel KSE-100 Index above 94,000 points

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As a result of investors’ optimism about the reported progress in the continuing talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) experienced a robust surge.

The benchmark KSE-100 Index of the PSX, which tracks market sentiment, rose 713 points to a new record high of 94,068 points, breaking above the 94,000-point barrier, as the trading session began.

Early in the day, the stock market began its upward trajectory as the KSE-100 Index steadily rose, gaining 574 points to reach 93,932 points. A possible agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) might lead to more fiscal stability and back Pakistan’s economic reforms, which is why investors are so optimistic about the country’s future.

Officials from the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) informed the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday that the government would not be introducing a mini-budget and would instead continue to aim to collect Rs12,970 billion in taxes each year.

In line with continuing discussions with the Fund, FBR sources revealed that petroleum goods will not be subject to the General Sales Tax (GST).

The fact that Pakistan’s tax-to-GDP ratio has increased from 8.8% to 10.3%, a 1.5% gain viewed as a favorable sign of Pakistan’s fiscal policies, has reportedly pleased the IMF, who has voiced satisfaction at Pakistan’s recent economic performance.

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Provinces must inform IMF team of the postponed legislation for 45% agricultural tax.

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The visiting International Monetary Fund (IMF) delegation is scheduled to meet with provincial government leaders today to examine progress in implementing a tax on agricultural income of up to 45% and discuss the execution of other fiscal policies.

The agricultural income tax was to go into effect on January 1, 2025, after the provincial governments were given until October 31 to pass the necessary legislation. Nevertheless, the deadline was missed by every single province.

Rumor has it that neither Sindh nor Balochistan have moved forward with the tax on agricultural income bill, despite approval from the Punjab government and a draft being developed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

All four provinces have signed the National Fiscal Pact as per the conditions set by the IMF. The reason(s) for the delays will be explained to the IMF delegation.

Federal spending on things like healthcare, social security, and regional infrastructure development is expected to be transferred to the provinces under the IMF agreement, according to sources from the Ministry of Finance. Provincial governments have been singled out by the IMF delegation as key players in tax and economic reform efforts.

Reviewed Here: FBR Excludes Mini-Budget and GST on Petrol from IMF Negotiations

The provincial budget surplus targets will also be briefed to the IMF delegation, according to the sources. The four provinces were supposed to achieve a total surplus of Rs342 billion in the first quarter, but they only managed to manage Rs182 billion. A large portion of the deficit was caused by the Rs160 billion budget deficit in Punjab.

The government’s pledge to retain the annual tax target of Rs12,970 billion was reaffirmed by the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) on Wednesday, who also confirmed that no mini-budget will be implemented.

In line with continuing discussions with the IMF, FBR sources have also said that petroleum goods will not be subject to the General Sales Tax (GST).

According to sources, the International Monetary Fund has voiced its approval of Pakistan’s recent economic performance, highlighting the country’s improved fiscal policies, which have led to a 1.5% increase in the tax-to-GDP ratio, from 8.8% to 10.3%.

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Petrol prices are expected to experience another increase in Pakistan.

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The inflation-affected nation is expected to encounter another increase in petrol prices, with recommendations indicating a rise of Rs. 2.58 per litre for petrol and Rs. 5.91 per litre for high-speed diesel.

Sources indicate that, if sanctioned, petrol prices will ascend to Rs. 250.96 per litre, whereas high-speed diesel will be priced at Rs. 261.05 per litre.

Sources indicated that the suggested increase is due to the elevated premium on petroleum products in the worldwide market and rising import expenses.

The premium on imported petroleum products has increased, leading the government to contemplate pricing modifications effective November 16, sources indicated.

On October 31, the federal government published the prices of petroleum products for the upcoming fortnight, increasing the prices of petrol and high-speed diesel.

A notification announced an increase in petrol price by Rs 1.35, raising it to Rs 248.38 a litre. The price of high-speed diesel was fixed at Rs 255.14 per litre after an increase of Rs 3.85.

Also read: Pakistan’s weekly inflation jumps to 15.02pc

Simultaneously, the costs of light diesel and kerosene oil were reduced. The statement states that kerosene oil is priced at Rs 148.5 per litre following a reduction of Rs 4.92.

The cost of light fuel was reduced by Rs 2.61 to Rs 147.51 per litre.

The rampant hike in the prices came at the time when the weekly inflation, measured by the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI), witnessed an increase of 0.28 percent for the combined consumption groups during the week ended on October 17, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported.

According to the PBS data, the SPI for the week under review in the above-mentioned group was recorded at 319.79 points as compared to 318.91 points during the past week.

In comparison to the same week last year, the SPI for the combined consumption group during the reviewed week experienced a 15.02 percent increase.

The weekly SPI with the base year 2015-16 =100 covers 17 urban centres and 51 essential items for all expenditure groups.

Likewise, SPI for the lowest consumption group of up to Rs 17,732 witnessed increase of 0.27 percent and went up to 313.74 points from last week’s 312.91 points.

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