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‘PTI’s popularity is 70%’: How credible is the survey Imran Khan cited?

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Former prime minister Imran Khan has made a bullish claim, insisting that a recent survey finds his political party’s popularity soaring to 70% in the Punjab province. But the survey Khan has cited, may be based on limited and arguably sketchy data, Geo Fact Check finds.

“Look at this graph,” the 70-year-old leader said, in a recorded video message on Wednesday, “The result of a survey. This tells you that right now the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is 70% popular.”

He repeated the claim in an interview with Al Jazeera on the same day.

The survey Khan is quoting was conducted by an Islamabad-based think tank, which goes by the name of Republic Policy.

As per the website of the think tank, the poll was conducted between May 10 and 15 in Punjab and its data found that 70% of the respondents it reached out to had a favourable opinion of Imran Khan.

While the former prime minister’s political rivals, Nawaz Sharif, Shehbaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz had a combined popularity of only 18%.

However, neither the think tank’s web portal nor its YouTube channel provides any additional information on the methodology used to collect the information, the cities and rural areas in Punjab it targeted or the sample size of the survey.

Tahir Maqsood Chheena, one of the heads of Republic Policy, told Geo Fact Check over the phone, that 10-15 students, who worked as volunteers, helped him complete the survey.

“I also called people myself,” he added, “People who I knew, as well as sent teams in the field.”

Even more astounding is the sample size of the survey.

Chheena alleged that the think tank interviewed 25 people in each union council of the province. Punjab has over 4,015 union councils, which would mean that the Republic Policy reached out to an astounding 100,375 people in just five days.

“I cannot tell you an exact number of the sample size,” Chheena said, “It could have been 90,000 or 100,000.”

When asked if his team identified people scientifically, based on their income and profession, amongst other things. He said: “We did nothing as such. You have the right to say we did not do it [the survey] properly. Next time we will keep this in mind.”

The Republic Policy conducted a similar survey in March, where it again found Imran Khan’s popularity to be 62% in Punjab, much ahead of all other politicians.

Bilal Gilani, the executive director at Gallup Pakistan, said that in order to determine the quality of a survey it is important to tell the readers the sample size and the profile of the respondents interviewed, in terms of profession etc.

“I saw this survey and it didn’t tell you the sample size or the profiles,” he told Geo Fact Check.

He added that as per the international code of ethics for polling organisations, they must transparently disclose all information about themselves, including what they do and how.

“Even these details are scarce about the Republic Policy,” he said.

What is Republic Policy?

The think tank was launched in November 2022, Chheena said. It is run by him and “some other friends” who are all retired civil servants. Chheena himself is a former police official.

On social media, most of its tweets are favourable to Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).

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Reaction to the PTI protest call by Fazlur Rehman

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Maulana Fazlur Rehman, speaking on a private television station, said that the PTI is always coming to the streets, which really lessens the impact of a protest.

He also suggested to the PTI leadership that rather than carrying on with the agitation, it should finally put a hard hand down, which would be the final nail in the coffin.

He continued, citing the JUI protests as an example, saying, “We had a strong grip over our protesters and workers, so neither road was closed nor any property damage occurred during protests.”

The PTI has the right to protest, but Maulana Fazlur Rehman described the party’s agitation strategy as insufficient, stating that it is currently being “exposed which maynot be a good sign’.

Ali Amin Gandapur, the chief minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, promised not to go back home unless the PTI founder was freed. During their demonstration, Imran Khan’s wife, Bushra Bibi, encouraged the party officials to come up with strategies to avoid being arrested.

According to an alleged audio recording, she stated that November 24 will be a loyalty test for PTI members.

Additionally, the government of Islamabad has enforced section 144 for a period of two months, which prohibits processions, rallies, demonstrations, and meetings of five or more individuals in the city.

As per the notification, the prohibition forbade meetings in any public space inside the boundaries of Islamabad, including the Red Zone, which encompasses important government buildings, diplomatic missions, and other sensitive sites.

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PTI representatives conjecture in the media over Imran’s approval of bail: FIA investigator

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The hearing on the PTI founder’s bail application in the Toshakhana-2 case has resumed at the Islamabad High Court (IHC), with Justice Mian Gul Hasan Aurangzeb serving as the presider.

The hearing was attended by the defense attorney, Barrister Salman Safdar, and FIA prosecutor Zulfiqar Abbas Naqvi.

Judge Mian Gul Hasan Aurangzeb told the FIA prosecutor to “leave the media alone and exempt yourself from them” in order to avoid commenting on the media. The statement followed the prosecutor’s assertion that the bail would be granted, which had previously been reported by media sources.

In addition, the court questioned whether the receipts in question were issued in the name of Bushra Bibi or the PTI founder itself. Bushra Bibi’s name was on the receipts listed in the challan, according to Barrister Salman Safdar.

Defense arguments
The defense expressed displeasure about the case’s 3.5-year registration wait. The prosecution has swore in Sohaib Abbasi and made Inamullah Shah a crucial witness without requiring them to take an oath.

Barrister Salman Safdar highlighted that multiple agencies, including NAB, FIA, Police, and the Election Commission, have initiated actions related to the Toshakhana case, suggesting procedural redundancy.

Regarding a phony Toshakhana receipt, he contended, the Kohsar Police Station has also filed a case.

Position of the prosecution
The FIA prosecutor, Umair Majeed Malik, maintained that the valuation of the jewelry set mentioned in the case would be explained in the prosecution’s evidence.Justice Mian Gul Hasan Aurangzeb remarked, “If the media does not spread sensationalism, how will they conduct their business?” He dismissed rumors about his health, stating that he was present and hearing the case despite such reports.

Status of Co-Accused
The court was informed that Bushra Bibi, a co-accused in the case, is currently on interim bail and awaiting a decision by Judge Afzal Majuka. Barrister Salman Safdar expressed hope that Judge Majuka would soon announce his verdict.

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Naqvi visits Fazl to express gratitude for contributions to the 26th amendment.

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Federal Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi convened with Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Fazl (JUI-F) leader Maulana Fazlur Rehman to deliberate on issues of shared concern and the current political landscape in the nation.

In today’s meeting in Islamabad, Mr. Naqvi asked about Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s health and sent his best wishes for the JUI chief’s well-being and future pursuits.

Naqvi extended his appreciation to Maulana Fazlur Rehman for his crucial contribution to the enactment of the 26th Constitutional Amendment, which he characterised as a significant milestone in Pakistan’s legislative history.

Following the meeting, Naqvi commended Mr. Fazlur Rehman’s commitment to the nation, asserting, “Maulana Fazlur Rehman has consistently prioritised Pakistan’s interests, and his contributions to the country are indispensable.”

The experienced politician reaffirmed his dedication to Pakistan and its populace, stating, “Our priority has consistently been Pakistan and the well-being of its citizens.”

Senator Kamran Murtaza attended the meeting.

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