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Petrol, diesel likely to cross Rs300 mark for first time in country’s history

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  • At present the inflation rate is at 28%, says energy ministry official.
  • Govt already under pressure due to power bills, says official.
  • LC confirmation charges embedded in price of petroleum products.

ISLAMABAD: Amid a recent increase in global oil rates along with depreciation in the value of the rupee against the US dollar — which has impacted the exchange rate impact by Rs12 — Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) is likely to recommend a hike in the petroleum products prices for the next fortnight, The News reported Tuesday.

It is likely that the price of petrol will go up by Rs12 per litre, while diesel will see a rise of Rs14.83 per litre from September 1, 2023.

“This would expose the masses to a further surge in inflation making the lives of the masses more miserable. At present the inflation rate is at 28%,” a senior official of the Energy Ministry told The News

“However, the government which is already under tremendous pressure because of the countrywide protests over the inflated electricity bills, may reduce the increase or stop it,” the official added.

But doing so would put the caretaker government in a tight spot.

“If the government does that it would be considered that the caretaker government has defaulted on the IMF terms and conditions for its $3 billion standby agreement (SBA) loan under which the government is bound to pass fluctuation in prices of the POL products. 

The dollar’s value has reached Rs301.75 in the interbank while it is selling at around Rs319 in the open market,” the official said.

As per the data, over the month of August, petrol prices have already increased by Rs37.50 while diesel has gone up by Rs40 per litre. 

“However, the authorities last time worked out the POL prices at the value of the dollar at Rs287 and now they have decided to calculate the prices of POL products from September 1, 2023, at Rs299. 

“The big impact of the exchange rate of Rs12 will be reflected in the hike in POL prices.

“The LC confirmation charges that have increased by 10% are also embedded in the price of PSO petroleum products,” the Energy Ministry official told The News

“The existing price of Mogas stands at Rs290.45 per litre which may go up by Rs12 per litre to Rs Rs302.45 per litre. Likewise, the HSD price which stands at Rs293.40 per litre is also likely to increase by Rs14.83 per litre to Rs308.23 per litre.”

Diesel price is highly inflationary as it is mostly used in heavy transport vehicles, trains and agricultural engines like trucks, buses, tractors, tube wells and threshers and particularly adds to the cost of vegetables and other eatables. 

On the other hand, petrol is also mostly used in private transport, small vehicles, rickshaws and two-wheelers and directly affects the budget of middle and lower-middle-class citizens.

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Positive IMF negotiations propel KSE-100 Index above 94,000 points

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As a result of investors’ optimism about the reported progress in the continuing talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) experienced a robust surge.

The benchmark KSE-100 Index of the PSX, which tracks market sentiment, rose 713 points to a new record high of 94,068 points, breaking above the 94,000-point barrier, as the trading session began.

Early in the day, the stock market began its upward trajectory as the KSE-100 Index steadily rose, gaining 574 points to reach 93,932 points. A possible agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) might lead to more fiscal stability and back Pakistan’s economic reforms, which is why investors are so optimistic about the country’s future.

Officials from the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) informed the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday that the government would not be introducing a mini-budget and would instead continue to aim to collect Rs12,970 billion in taxes each year.

In line with continuing discussions with the Fund, FBR sources revealed that petroleum goods will not be subject to the General Sales Tax (GST).

The fact that Pakistan’s tax-to-GDP ratio has increased from 8.8% to 10.3%, a 1.5% gain viewed as a favorable sign of Pakistan’s fiscal policies, has reportedly pleased the IMF, who has voiced satisfaction at Pakistan’s recent economic performance.

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Provinces must inform IMF team of the postponed legislation for 45% agricultural tax.

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The visiting International Monetary Fund (IMF) delegation is scheduled to meet with provincial government leaders today to examine progress in implementing a tax on agricultural income of up to 45% and discuss the execution of other fiscal policies.

The agricultural income tax was to go into effect on January 1, 2025, after the provincial governments were given until October 31 to pass the necessary legislation. Nevertheless, the deadline was missed by every single province.

Rumor has it that neither Sindh nor Balochistan have moved forward with the tax on agricultural income bill, despite approval from the Punjab government and a draft being developed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

All four provinces have signed the National Fiscal Pact as per the conditions set by the IMF. The reason(s) for the delays will be explained to the IMF delegation.

Federal spending on things like healthcare, social security, and regional infrastructure development is expected to be transferred to the provinces under the IMF agreement, according to sources from the Ministry of Finance. Provincial governments have been singled out by the IMF delegation as key players in tax and economic reform efforts.

Reviewed Here: FBR Excludes Mini-Budget and GST on Petrol from IMF Negotiations

The provincial budget surplus targets will also be briefed to the IMF delegation, according to the sources. The four provinces were supposed to achieve a total surplus of Rs342 billion in the first quarter, but they only managed to manage Rs182 billion. A large portion of the deficit was caused by the Rs160 billion budget deficit in Punjab.

The government’s pledge to retain the annual tax target of Rs12,970 billion was reaffirmed by the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) on Wednesday, who also confirmed that no mini-budget will be implemented.

In line with continuing discussions with the IMF, FBR sources have also said that petroleum goods will not be subject to the General Sales Tax (GST).

According to sources, the International Monetary Fund has voiced its approval of Pakistan’s recent economic performance, highlighting the country’s improved fiscal policies, which have led to a 1.5% increase in the tax-to-GDP ratio, from 8.8% to 10.3%.

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Petrol prices are expected to experience another increase in Pakistan.

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The inflation-affected nation is expected to encounter another increase in petrol prices, with recommendations indicating a rise of Rs. 2.58 per litre for petrol and Rs. 5.91 per litre for high-speed diesel.

Sources indicate that, if sanctioned, petrol prices will ascend to Rs. 250.96 per litre, whereas high-speed diesel will be priced at Rs. 261.05 per litre.

Sources indicated that the suggested increase is due to the elevated premium on petroleum products in the worldwide market and rising import expenses.

The premium on imported petroleum products has increased, leading the government to contemplate pricing modifications effective November 16, sources indicated.

On October 31, the federal government published the prices of petroleum products for the upcoming fortnight, increasing the prices of petrol and high-speed diesel.

A notification announced an increase in petrol price by Rs 1.35, raising it to Rs 248.38 a litre. The price of high-speed diesel was fixed at Rs 255.14 per litre after an increase of Rs 3.85.

Also read: Pakistan’s weekly inflation jumps to 15.02pc

Simultaneously, the costs of light diesel and kerosene oil were reduced. The statement states that kerosene oil is priced at Rs 148.5 per litre following a reduction of Rs 4.92.

The cost of light fuel was reduced by Rs 2.61 to Rs 147.51 per litre.

The rampant hike in the prices came at the time when the weekly inflation, measured by the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI), witnessed an increase of 0.28 percent for the combined consumption groups during the week ended on October 17, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported.

According to the PBS data, the SPI for the week under review in the above-mentioned group was recorded at 319.79 points as compared to 318.91 points during the past week.

In comparison to the same week last year, the SPI for the combined consumption group during the reviewed week experienced a 15.02 percent increase.

The weekly SPI with the base year 2015-16 =100 covers 17 urban centres and 51 essential items for all expenditure groups.

Likewise, SPI for the lowest consumption group of up to Rs 17,732 witnessed increase of 0.27 percent and went up to 313.74 points from last week’s 312.91 points.

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