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Monetary policy: SBP likely to leave rate on hold today

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  • SBP to issue advance calendar of MPC meetings for first half of 2023.
  • Small section of market participants did not rule out a hike or reduction.
  • Central bank increased rate by 800 basis points in 11 months.

KARACHI: The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is scheduled to announce its key policy rate for the next six weeks today and a majority of pundits have developed a consensus that the central bank will leave the rate unchanged at 15% in order to wait for the stabilisation of the economy.

However, a small section of market participants did not rule out a hike of 50-100 basis points or a reduction of 25-50 basis points.

More importantly, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar, who is following his old recipe of running a controlled economy, will like to see an easy monetary policy. The policy rate is a tool for the central bank to create a balance between inflation and economic growth.

The central bank increased the rate by a cumulative 800 basis points in 11 months (September 2021 to July 2022) to 15%.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) maintained the rate in its previous monetary policy unveiled on October 10, 2022.

Most of the pundits aren’t expecting any rate increase because the Ministry of Finance has not indicated anything in the recent T-bill auctions.

The OMO injection is growing and it’s around Rs6 trillion. And SBP has issued recent OMOs at prevailing rates. This implies that SBP might not be thinking of any increase in the rate. The secondary market yields imply the same.

In addition, another positive development since the last MPC meeting has been the decline in international prices of major commodities such as WTI, coal, brent, steel, wheat, and Arab Light. This bodes well for our external account position, hence providing much-needed relief to our trade numbers.

To recall, in the last monetary policy statement too, the MPC stated that the existing rate prudently reflected a balance between maintaining growth post floods and managing inflation.

Moreover, as mentioned in the last statement, SBP is closely monitoring the inflation trajectory. On the inflationary front, the headline inflation continues to remain in the double-digit since November 2021 mainly on the back of an uptick in food and energy prices.

In the month of October, headline inflation clocked in at 26.6% year-on-year. However, on a month-on-month basis, inflation increased by 4.71% mainly due to fuel cost adjustment adjustments and food price hikes.

The central bank is also expected to issue the advance calendar of MPC meetings for the first half of the calendar year 2023 after today’s meeting.

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It is anticipated that 150 ships would arrive at Gwadar by the year 2045, allowing the port to handle fifty percent of all imports.

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In an effort to strengthen the port’s economic importance, the Federal Government has made the decision to direct fifty percent of all imports from the public sector to Gwadar Port.

By taking this action, which has the backing of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, the port’s financial situation is going to be improved.

The Cabinet will be presented with a summary of imports through Gwadar by the Ministry of Maritime Affairs, which will take place after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s recent trip to China.

When the next Cabinet Meeting takes place, Ahsan Iqbal, the Federal Minister for Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives, will examine the Chinese offer for the Karachi to Hyderabad Section of the ML-1 Project and bring it to the Cabinet.

Company preparations for the Shanghai International Import Expo, which will take place in November 2024, are being made by the Board of Investment and the Ministry of Commerce of Pakistan.

One of the most important aspects of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is the Gwadar port, which serves as a significant commerce route connecting China, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. At this time, the Gwadar Port is able to accommodate two huge ships, and by the year 2045, it is anticipated that it would be able to handle up to 150 ships.

By developing the Gwadar Port, regional connectivity would be improved, employment will be created, and international investment will be attracted.

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The price of gold in Pakistan has experienced a significant surge.

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Gold prices in Pakistan surged significantly on Thursday following two consecutive days of decline, with the price per tola rising by Rs2,000 to reach Rs262,100. This increase was in accordance with the downward trend in international market values.

The All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA) reported that the price of 10 grams of 24-karat gold rose by Rs1,714, reaching Rs224,708.

Conversely, the world gold market experienced an upward trajectory. According to the APGJSA, the global price of gold surged to $2,503 per ounce following a $22 gain during the trading session.

The local market experienced a significant decline in silver prices, decreasing from Rs50 to Rs2,900 per tola after a prolonged period.

The local market’s gold prices remain subject to the ever-changing dynamics of the international market, as well as domestic considerations such as currency exchange rates and domestic demand.

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The government has not met the deadline set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the approval of a $7 billion loan.

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On Tuesday night, there were virtual talks between representatives of the Finance Ministry and the IMF delegation, with the main topics being external finance and income generation.

According to people familiar with the situation, no date has been set for the IMF’s Executive Board to approve the loan despite the ongoing negotiations.

Officials from the Finance Ministry informed the IMF mission about the government’s initiatives to get outside funding during the discussions. Updates on loan rollovers and fresh finance commitments from allies were included in this. According to sources, the IMF has received a schedule, and loan rollovers are expected to be finished by the end of next week.

The $12 billion in debt must be rolled over before the loan can be approved by the Executive Board, according to the IMF mission.

In the virtual discussions, representatives of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) conversed with the IMF team over the revenue deficit. The FBR must reach its revenue goals for this month, according to the IMF mission. As a result, the IMF has asked the FBR to submit a thorough strategy outlining how it will close the gap left by the shortfall and guarantee that revenue goals are reached.

Apart from the conversations on outside funding, there are rumors that the Finance Ministry is actively holding talks with commercial banks in order to obtain new funding. According to reports, negotiations are taking place with four distinct sources for commercial loans, which are anticipated to support the government’s overall financial plan.

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb disclosed on Tuesday that the IMF was in favor of introducing targeted subsidies. He said that qualifying recipients might receive these subsidies through the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP).

In order to guarantee consistency, the minister announced that this week’s talks with chief ministers will focus on implementing a similar policy across the country. He was having a casual conversation in parliament with the journalists.

In response to queries about outside funding, Aurangzeb revealed a $2 billion deficit and said that talks to close this gap are progressing. He stressed how crucial it is to obtain business loans.

He went on, “At this point, there’s a need to secure an agreement for commercial loans, not exactly their issuance,” emphasizing that debt rollover negotiations are nearing their conclusion and doing well. The minister expected that these developments would shortly be reported to the governments of allied countries by relevant authorities.

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