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In Washington meeting, Ishaq Dar to ask IMF to revise macroeconomic framework

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  • Ishaq Dar to attend IMF/World Bank meetings from Oct 10 to 16.
  • Pakistan to formally request IMF to give concessions on loan conditions.
  • IMF says policy commitments made by Pakistan to continue to apply.

Amid controversy over the new petrol price announced by the government which has been termed a “reckless” decision, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar will travel to Washington next week and hold meetings with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), seeking to revise the macroeconomic framework.

“Pakistan’s Minister for Finance Ishaq Dar will participate in the upcoming annual meeting of the IMF/WB,” a top official of the Finance Ministry confirmed while talking to The News on Wednesday.

In a surprise move last week, the federal government slashed the prices of petroleum products sparking debate about whether the move is in line with the IMF deal and former minister Miftah Ismail termed it a “reckless” move.

However, Dar responded to his predecessor by saying he knows how to deal with the IMF while state minister for finance Aisha Ghous Pasha added that the announcement didn’t violate the loan agreement.

The IMF had also said that policy commitments made by the Pakistani authorities as part of the seventh and eighth reviews under their support program continue to apply.

The publication, quoting unnamed sources, said that Pakistan will make a formal request to the IMF high-ups for revising the macroeconomic framework for the current fiscal year 2022-23 by lowering the GDP growth rate, hiking inflation and upward adjustments of twin deficits known as the budget deficit and current account deficit.

Islamabad is all set to make a request to the IMF for making the conditions attached to the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) lenient, especially freezing fuel price adjustment of electricity and petroleum development levy on POL products for the next few months to provide some relief to the inflation-stricken masses.

Pakistan, the report said, will also request to relax the budget deficit target for the current fiscal year as severe floods might damage its revenue mobilisation efforts and increase pressures on the expenditure front.

The government has restricted the budget deficit target at 4.9% for the current fiscal year under the IMF programme and throwing a revenue surplus of Rs153 billion till the end of June 2023.

The request for revising the macroeconomic framework will be made for the current fiscal year in the wake of severe floods that have caused devastation and required construction costs of over $30 billion for the struggling economy of Pakistan.

As per the report, Secretary Economic Affairs Division Kazim Niaz had already departed Islamabad for Washington to attend the upcoming meetings of Breton Wood Institutions.

Under the macroeconomic framework, the government has assessed that the country’s GDP growth might hover around 2% for the current fiscal year against the initially envisaged target of 5%.

The economic loss has been estimated at Rs2.4 trillion for the current fiscal year. The government’s projections also show that unemployment projection will increase due to the loss of 1.8 to 2 million jobs and poverty may hike by 4.5 to 5%, implying that 9 to 12 million people will fall below the poverty line.

The agriculture growth is feared to remain negative in the range of -0.7% to -2.1% against the target of plus 3.9% for the current fiscal year. The government has estimated that the growth in major crops was expected to remain negative in the range of 14 to 15.4% for the current fiscal year. Around one million large and small animals have perished. The livestock growth is expected to remain between 2 to 3% against the desired target of 3.7 % for the current fiscal year.

The inflation will hike, to go up in the range of 23 to 25% for the current fiscal year against the initially envisaged target of 11.5%.

The government has not yet firmed up any specific number for the current account deficit but it is feared that it may go up from $9 billion to $12 billion for the ongoing financial year mainly because of decline in exports.

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With its second-largest surge ever, PSX approaches 114,000 points.

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Driven by renewed activity from both private and government financial institutions, the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) saw its second-largest rally in history on Monday.

The market regained many important levels in a single trading session as it rose with previously unheard-of momentum.

Intraday trading saw a top increase of 4,676 points, and the PSX’s benchmark KSE-100 Index gained 4,411 points to settle at 113,924 points. This impressive rebound demonstrated significant investor confidence by reestablishing the 100,000, 111,000, 112,000, and 113,000-point levels.

The market also saw the 114,000-point limit reestablished during the trading session.

The positive tendency was reflected when the market’s heavyweight shares touched its upper circuits. Among the most busiest trading sessions in recent memory, an astounding 85.78 billion shares worth a total of Rs55 billion were exchanged.

Experts credited the spike to heightened institutional investor activity and hope for macroeconomic recovery. Considered a major market recovery, the rally demonstrated the market’s tenacity and development potential.

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In interbank trade, the Pakistani rupee beats the US dollar.

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In the international exchange market, the US dollar has continued to weaken in relation to the Pakistani rupee.

The dollar fell to Rs278.10 from Rs278.17 at the beginning of interbank trading, according to currency dealers, a seven paisa loss.

In the meantime, there was a lot of turbulence in the stock market, but it recovered and moved into the positive zone. The KSE-100 index recovered momentum and reached 116,000 points after soaring 1,300 points.

Both currency and stock market swings, according to analysts, are a reflection of ongoing market adjustments and economic uncertainty.

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Phase II of CPEC: China-Pakistan Partnership Enters a New Era

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The cornerstone of economic cooperation between the two brothers and all-weather friends is still the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the initiative’s flagship project.

In contrast to reports of a slowdown, recent events indicate a renewed vigour and strategic emphasis on pushing the second phase of CPEC, known as CPEC Phase-2, according to the Ministry of Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives.

According to the statement, this crucial stage seeks to reshape the foundation of bilateral ties via increased cooperation, cutting-edge technology transfer, and revolutionary socioeconomic initiatives.

Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal is leading Pakistan’s participation in a number of high-profile gatherings in China, such as the 3rd Forum on China-Indian Ocean Region Development Cooperation in Kunming and the High-Level Seminar on CPEC-2 in Beijing.

His involvement demonstrates Pakistan’s commitment to reviving CPEC, resolving outstanding concerns, and developing a strong phase-2 roadmap that considers both countries’ long-term prosperity.

At the core of these interactions is China’s steadfast determination to turn CPEC into a strategic alliance that promotes development, progress, and connectivity.

Instead of being marginalised, CPEC is developing into a multifaceted framework with five main thematic corridors: the Opening-Up/Regional Connectivity Corridor, the Innovation Corridor, the Green Corridor, the Growth Corridor, and the Livelihood-Enhancing Corridor.

With the help of projects like these, the two countries will fortify their partnership, and CPEC phase-2 will become a model of global economic integration and collaboration that benefits not just China and Pakistan but the entire region.

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