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IMF range of 1.25% between interbank, kerb rates of dollar breached over last five days

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  • Difference ranges between 2% to 4% for last five working days.
  • Local currency in interbank market continues to slide.
  • IMF under SBA mandated spread not to be more than 1.25% in five consecutive business days on weekly basis.

ISLAMABAD: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) structural benchmark for keeping the difference between interbank and open market rates for US dollar against the Pakistani rupee within the band range of 1.25% had been breached at least for the last five working days, The News reported on Thursday.

The difference ranged between 2% to 4% in the last five consecutive days whereas the global lender might raise this issue, with the caretaker government, in the upcoming negotiations expected to be held at the end of October or early November this year.

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has been unable to keep the difference in exchange rate within the desired limit of 1.25% so far despite witnessing depreciation in the exchange rate.

The clearance of stuck-up containers at ports, payment of dividends, and removal of other restrictions have increased pressures on the exchange rate. 

Secondly, the IMF condition has been resulting in dollarisation because the interbank market was following the open market so everyone knows that investing in the dollar would increase benefits.

This scribe sent out a question to the SBP two days ago inquiring whether the agreed benchmark with the IMF was breached in the last five working days as the gap between the interbank and open market ranged around 4%. What’s the view of the SBP and how you ensured monitoring and then report it back to the IMF on a weekly basis?

The SBP’s spokesperson replied on Wednesday and stated “We do not have any comment to offer”.

The IMF under Standby Arrangement (SBA) mandated spread not to be more than 1.25% in five consecutive business days on a weekly basis.

The local currency in the interbank market continues to slide as the rupee in the interbank market stood at Rs295 and in the open market around Rs305 so the difference stood at 3.4%. From January 1, 2023, to August 15, 2023, the rupee witnessed a devaluation of 22.32% against the US dollar.

Independent economists feared that episodes of exchange rate depreciation were continuously expected during the gradual return to a market-based exchange rate.

While the rupee experienced an appreciation following the IMF under SBA, this effect was a combination of an increase in market confidence and depreciation of the US dollar. Because the trend of depreciation since FY23 has been driven by a deterioration of economic fundamentals, the effect of increased market confidence was only temporary, and the rupee-dollar exchange rate has returned to pre-SBA levels.

The recent depreciation could be attributed to the return to a market-determined exchange rate and commitment of no formal or informal intervention in foreign exchange markets, SBP’s interventions to be guided by the overarching objective of increasing reserves to at least $6.4 billion (1 month of import cover) by end of December 2023 and reducing SBP’s net forward/swap position to below $4 billion.

The foreign exchange sales are not to be used to prevent a trend depreciation of the rupee driven by economic fundamentals.

The policy rate was jacked up to 22% on June 26th, 2023, and will be further adjusted until inflation and inflation expectations are on a clear downward trend. The real policy rate (i.e., policy rate adjusted for inflation) might be brought into positive territory.

The withdrawal of a December 2022 circular issued to banks on prioritization in providing FX for certain types of imports, and a gradual phase-out of other FX and import restrictions, including the limitations on advance payments for imports against letters of credits (LCs) and advance payments beyond a certain amount per invoice (without LC) for the import of eligible items, and multiple currency practices also increased pressures on the exchange rate.

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Positive IMF negotiations propel KSE-100 Index above 94,000 points

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As a result of investors’ optimism about the reported progress in the continuing talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) experienced a robust surge.

The benchmark KSE-100 Index of the PSX, which tracks market sentiment, rose 713 points to a new record high of 94,068 points, breaking above the 94,000-point barrier, as the trading session began.

Early in the day, the stock market began its upward trajectory as the KSE-100 Index steadily rose, gaining 574 points to reach 93,932 points. A possible agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) might lead to more fiscal stability and back Pakistan’s economic reforms, which is why investors are so optimistic about the country’s future.

Officials from the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) informed the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday that the government would not be introducing a mini-budget and would instead continue to aim to collect Rs12,970 billion in taxes each year.

In line with continuing discussions with the Fund, FBR sources revealed that petroleum goods will not be subject to the General Sales Tax (GST).

The fact that Pakistan’s tax-to-GDP ratio has increased from 8.8% to 10.3%, a 1.5% gain viewed as a favorable sign of Pakistan’s fiscal policies, has reportedly pleased the IMF, who has voiced satisfaction at Pakistan’s recent economic performance.

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Provinces must inform IMF team of the postponed legislation for 45% agricultural tax.

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The visiting International Monetary Fund (IMF) delegation is scheduled to meet with provincial government leaders today to examine progress in implementing a tax on agricultural income of up to 45% and discuss the execution of other fiscal policies.

The agricultural income tax was to go into effect on January 1, 2025, after the provincial governments were given until October 31 to pass the necessary legislation. Nevertheless, the deadline was missed by every single province.

Rumor has it that neither Sindh nor Balochistan have moved forward with the tax on agricultural income bill, despite approval from the Punjab government and a draft being developed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

All four provinces have signed the National Fiscal Pact as per the conditions set by the IMF. The reason(s) for the delays will be explained to the IMF delegation.

Federal spending on things like healthcare, social security, and regional infrastructure development is expected to be transferred to the provinces under the IMF agreement, according to sources from the Ministry of Finance. Provincial governments have been singled out by the IMF delegation as key players in tax and economic reform efforts.

Reviewed Here: FBR Excludes Mini-Budget and GST on Petrol from IMF Negotiations

The provincial budget surplus targets will also be briefed to the IMF delegation, according to the sources. The four provinces were supposed to achieve a total surplus of Rs342 billion in the first quarter, but they only managed to manage Rs182 billion. A large portion of the deficit was caused by the Rs160 billion budget deficit in Punjab.

The government’s pledge to retain the annual tax target of Rs12,970 billion was reaffirmed by the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) on Wednesday, who also confirmed that no mini-budget will be implemented.

In line with continuing discussions with the IMF, FBR sources have also said that petroleum goods will not be subject to the General Sales Tax (GST).

According to sources, the International Monetary Fund has voiced its approval of Pakistan’s recent economic performance, highlighting the country’s improved fiscal policies, which have led to a 1.5% increase in the tax-to-GDP ratio, from 8.8% to 10.3%.

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Petrol prices are expected to experience another increase in Pakistan.

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The inflation-affected nation is expected to encounter another increase in petrol prices, with recommendations indicating a rise of Rs. 2.58 per litre for petrol and Rs. 5.91 per litre for high-speed diesel.

Sources indicate that, if sanctioned, petrol prices will ascend to Rs. 250.96 per litre, whereas high-speed diesel will be priced at Rs. 261.05 per litre.

Sources indicated that the suggested increase is due to the elevated premium on petroleum products in the worldwide market and rising import expenses.

The premium on imported petroleum products has increased, leading the government to contemplate pricing modifications effective November 16, sources indicated.

On October 31, the federal government published the prices of petroleum products for the upcoming fortnight, increasing the prices of petrol and high-speed diesel.

A notification announced an increase in petrol price by Rs 1.35, raising it to Rs 248.38 a litre. The price of high-speed diesel was fixed at Rs 255.14 per litre after an increase of Rs 3.85.

Also read: Pakistan’s weekly inflation jumps to 15.02pc

Simultaneously, the costs of light diesel and kerosene oil were reduced. The statement states that kerosene oil is priced at Rs 148.5 per litre following a reduction of Rs 4.92.

The cost of light fuel was reduced by Rs 2.61 to Rs 147.51 per litre.

The rampant hike in the prices came at the time when the weekly inflation, measured by the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI), witnessed an increase of 0.28 percent for the combined consumption groups during the week ended on October 17, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported.

According to the PBS data, the SPI for the week under review in the above-mentioned group was recorded at 319.79 points as compared to 318.91 points during the past week.

In comparison to the same week last year, the SPI for the combined consumption group during the reviewed week experienced a 15.02 percent increase.

The weekly SPI with the base year 2015-16 =100 covers 17 urban centres and 51 essential items for all expenditure groups.

Likewise, SPI for the lowest consumption group of up to Rs 17,732 witnessed increase of 0.27 percent and went up to 313.74 points from last week’s 312.91 points.

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