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IMF agreement to be inked next week: Rana Sanaullah

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  • “Govt has fulfilled all requirements of IMF,” the interior minister says.
  • He adds after agreement relief could be passed on to the public.
  • Pakistan and IMF are engaged in tough talks since late January.

ISLAMABAD: With all eyes on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for their final nod, Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah has said the agreement with the lender would be inked formally during next week, Radio Pakistan reported on Tuesday.

The two sides are engaged in tough talks to reach a consensus on multiple conditions since late January before signing the deal which also includes external financing from friendly countries.

Sanaullah, addressing a public gathering in Faisalabad, said that the government has fulfilled its all requirements and after the agreement relief could be passed on to the public.

A day earlier, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar told Geo News that Pakistan has “fulfilled all the conditions” of the IMF and hoped that the Fund will soon sign the staff-level agreement, paving the way for the release of the $1.1 billion tranche.

Dar said both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have informed the IMF about their commitments to provide $3 billion to Pakistan.

Riyadh will provide $2 billion while Abu Dhabi has promised $1 billion to Pakistan, Dar said, adding that the Washington-based lender has also been informed in this regard.

The finance minister said all the conditions for the staff-level agreement between Pakistan and IMF have been fulfilled.

“Pakistan is hopeful that IMF will soon sign the SLA and get it approved by its Executive Board,” Dar added.

The country’s foreign exchange reserves have fallen to cover barely a month of imports after the IMF funding stalled in November, hit by snags over fiscal policy adjustments after officials of the lender visited Islamabad in February for talks.

They formed part of a ninth review exercise on a bailout package of $6.5 billion agreed upon in 2019 whose resumption is critical for Pakistan to avoid risking default on external payment obligations.

Pakistan had to complete actions demanded by the IMF, such as reversing subsidies in its power, export and farming sectors, hikes in the prices of energy and fuel, and a permanent power surcharge, among other measures.

These steps included jacking up its key policy rate to an all-time high of 21%, a market-based exchange rate, arranging for external financing, and raising more than Rs170 billion ($613 million) in new taxes.

The fiscal adjustments have already fuelled Pakistan’s highest inflation ever, which climbed in March to more than 35% on the year.

The IMF programme will disburse another tranche of $1.4 billion to Pakistan before it concludes in June.

Funds from the lender will also unlock other bilateral and multilateral financings for the cash-strapped country.

Neighbouring China has rolled over $2 billion and refinanced another $1.3 billion in recent weeks.

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Positive IMF negotiations propel KSE-100 Index above 94,000 points

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As a result of investors’ optimism about the reported progress in the continuing talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) experienced a robust surge.

The benchmark KSE-100 Index of the PSX, which tracks market sentiment, rose 713 points to a new record high of 94,068 points, breaking above the 94,000-point barrier, as the trading session began.

Early in the day, the stock market began its upward trajectory as the KSE-100 Index steadily rose, gaining 574 points to reach 93,932 points. A possible agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) might lead to more fiscal stability and back Pakistan’s economic reforms, which is why investors are so optimistic about the country’s future.

Officials from the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) informed the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday that the government would not be introducing a mini-budget and would instead continue to aim to collect Rs12,970 billion in taxes each year.

In line with continuing discussions with the Fund, FBR sources revealed that petroleum goods will not be subject to the General Sales Tax (GST).

The fact that Pakistan’s tax-to-GDP ratio has increased from 8.8% to 10.3%, a 1.5% gain viewed as a favorable sign of Pakistan’s fiscal policies, has reportedly pleased the IMF, who has voiced satisfaction at Pakistan’s recent economic performance.

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Provinces must inform IMF team of the postponed legislation for 45% agricultural tax.

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The visiting International Monetary Fund (IMF) delegation is scheduled to meet with provincial government leaders today to examine progress in implementing a tax on agricultural income of up to 45% and discuss the execution of other fiscal policies.

The agricultural income tax was to go into effect on January 1, 2025, after the provincial governments were given until October 31 to pass the necessary legislation. Nevertheless, the deadline was missed by every single province.

Rumor has it that neither Sindh nor Balochistan have moved forward with the tax on agricultural income bill, despite approval from the Punjab government and a draft being developed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

All four provinces have signed the National Fiscal Pact as per the conditions set by the IMF. The reason(s) for the delays will be explained to the IMF delegation.

Federal spending on things like healthcare, social security, and regional infrastructure development is expected to be transferred to the provinces under the IMF agreement, according to sources from the Ministry of Finance. Provincial governments have been singled out by the IMF delegation as key players in tax and economic reform efforts.

Reviewed Here: FBR Excludes Mini-Budget and GST on Petrol from IMF Negotiations

The provincial budget surplus targets will also be briefed to the IMF delegation, according to the sources. The four provinces were supposed to achieve a total surplus of Rs342 billion in the first quarter, but they only managed to manage Rs182 billion. A large portion of the deficit was caused by the Rs160 billion budget deficit in Punjab.

The government’s pledge to retain the annual tax target of Rs12,970 billion was reaffirmed by the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) on Wednesday, who also confirmed that no mini-budget will be implemented.

In line with continuing discussions with the IMF, FBR sources have also said that petroleum goods will not be subject to the General Sales Tax (GST).

According to sources, the International Monetary Fund has voiced its approval of Pakistan’s recent economic performance, highlighting the country’s improved fiscal policies, which have led to a 1.5% increase in the tax-to-GDP ratio, from 8.8% to 10.3%.

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Petrol prices are expected to experience another increase in Pakistan.

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The inflation-affected nation is expected to encounter another increase in petrol prices, with recommendations indicating a rise of Rs. 2.58 per litre for petrol and Rs. 5.91 per litre for high-speed diesel.

Sources indicate that, if sanctioned, petrol prices will ascend to Rs. 250.96 per litre, whereas high-speed diesel will be priced at Rs. 261.05 per litre.

Sources indicated that the suggested increase is due to the elevated premium on petroleum products in the worldwide market and rising import expenses.

The premium on imported petroleum products has increased, leading the government to contemplate pricing modifications effective November 16, sources indicated.

On October 31, the federal government published the prices of petroleum products for the upcoming fortnight, increasing the prices of petrol and high-speed diesel.

A notification announced an increase in petrol price by Rs 1.35, raising it to Rs 248.38 a litre. The price of high-speed diesel was fixed at Rs 255.14 per litre after an increase of Rs 3.85.

Also read: Pakistan’s weekly inflation jumps to 15.02pc

Simultaneously, the costs of light diesel and kerosene oil were reduced. The statement states that kerosene oil is priced at Rs 148.5 per litre following a reduction of Rs 4.92.

The cost of light fuel was reduced by Rs 2.61 to Rs 147.51 per litre.

The rampant hike in the prices came at the time when the weekly inflation, measured by the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI), witnessed an increase of 0.28 percent for the combined consumption groups during the week ended on October 17, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported.

According to the PBS data, the SPI for the week under review in the above-mentioned group was recorded at 319.79 points as compared to 318.91 points during the past week.

In comparison to the same week last year, the SPI for the combined consumption group during the reviewed week experienced a 15.02 percent increase.

The weekly SPI with the base year 2015-16 =100 covers 17 urban centres and 51 essential items for all expenditure groups.

Likewise, SPI for the lowest consumption group of up to Rs 17,732 witnessed increase of 0.27 percent and went up to 313.74 points from last week’s 312.91 points.

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