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Illegal channels: Pakistan’s remittances fall 19% to $2bn in Dec

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  • Remittances decline 11% to $14.052 billion in first half of FY23.
  • Fall recorded mainly owing to mushrooming of grey transactions.
  • Inflows from Saudi Arabia fall 18% to $516.3 million in December.

KARACHI: Overseas workers’ remittances flowing into Pakistan dropped 19% in December to $2 billion from $2.52 billion recorded in the same month 2021, the central bank said on Friday, mainly owing to mushrooming of the grey transactions.

The remittances received during the July-December period of FY23 fell 11% to $14.052 billion from $15.807 billion in the first half of FY22, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said.

Month-on-month, the inflows sent home by the Pakistani diaspora working abroad decreased by 3.2% to $ 2.108 billion in November 2022. 

Arif Habib Limited (AHL), in a recent note, said a key risk that had emerged in the current account in recent months was the deteriorating trend in remittances.

The brokerage said that a sizeable gap (10-12%) between the official and unofficial exchange rates amid administrative measures undertaken by the SBP was the major reason for the declining official remittances trend, with rising flows via unofficial channels. 

“We believe such a large gap between the two rates is unsustainable and counterproductive to the successful negotiations on the 9th review, which is a likely catalyst for things to normalize in the exchange markets.”

The AHL report added that this trend was also evident from the sharp decline in official remittances. “We estimate, the country losing around USD 150-200mn monthly flows due to the artificial gap in official and unofficial rates,” the brokerage said. 

Remittances from Saudi Arabia, despite being the largest contributor, fell 18% to $516.3 million in December 2022 compared to $626.8 million sent in the same month of the previous year. 

Inflows from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) declined 27% to $328.7 million from $453.2 million in December 2021, according to the central bank.

Pakistan’s central bank forex reserves have plunged to the lowest level since February 2014 after a decline of 22.11%, posing a serious challenge for the country in financing imports.

The announcement came at a time when the country is in dire need of foreign aid to reduce its current account deficit as well as ensure enough reserves to meet its debt obligations.

Coupled with another $5.8 billion held by commercial banks, the nation has $10.2 billion in reserves — which barely covers three weeks of imports.

Illegal channels: Pakistans remittances fall 19% to $2bn in Dec

During the week ended on January 6, the central bank’s forex reserves fell $1,233 million, or 22.12% to $4,343.2 million, a statement from the central bank said, down from last week’s reserves of $5,576.5 million.

Pakistan’s economy has crumbled alongside a simmering political crisis, with the rupee plummeting and inflation at decades-high levels, but devastating floods and a global energy crisis have worsened the situation.

Despite recent compression measures by the government, Pakistan’s import bill for goods was $5.1 billion per month in both November and December, according to the country’s statistics bureau. Its main imports are critical energy-related fuels.

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Minister of Finance Reaffirms Unwavering Support for APM Terminals Group in Effort to Strengthen Bilateral Cooperation

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Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb, Pakistan’s Minister of Finance, has promised the APM Terminals Group his full support in creating an environment that is both business-friendly and conducive to investment.

In Islamabad, he met with a group of APM terminals who had come to hear him speak. Keith Svendsen, CEO of APM Terminals, was in charge of the group.

Muhammad Aurangzeb, a senator from Pakistan, expressed his approval of APM Terminals’ investment plans.

Following last month’s signing of a memorandum of agreement to strengthen bilateral cooperation, the meeting’s emphasis was on the actions taken to date.

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Pakistan’s gold prices are declining.

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Ten grams of 24 carat gold also had a price decrease of Rs. 1,115, from Rs. 239,026 to Rs. 237,911, while ten kilos of 22 carat gold saw a rise in price from Rs. 219,107 to Rs. 218.085.

The cost of ten grams of silver and one tola of silver stayed at Rs. 2,829.21 and Rs. 3,300, respectively.

As stated by the Association, the price of gold fell $13 to $2,670 on the global market.

On Monday, November 11, 24-karat gold prices fell to 3,771 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per tola in Saudi Arabia.

The price of 24-kar gold is SAR 10,067 per ounce, while 10 grams of the metal are being sold for SAR 3,237 in the kingdom, according to forex.pk.

Note: Since the prices were updated at 10:15 am on November 11, 2024, there may be some discrepancies in this post due to the dynamic nature of the gold market globally, especially in Saudi Arabia.

As the markets anticipate the Federal Reserve to take a cautious stance under U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s administration, gold prices fell for a second session on Monday due to a stronger dollar and heightened risk appetite.

As of 09:27 GMT, spot gold was down 0.6% to $2,666.48 an ounce. The price of US gold futures dropped 0.8% to $2,673.20.

“A stronger U.S. dollar, rising Treasury yields, and increased risk appetite in financial markets are the main reasons why gold prices have declined — a trend that has gained momentum since Donald Trump’s victory in last week’s presidential election,” said Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades.

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Prices for cooking oil and ghee have increased in Pakistan.

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Details show that although the price of ghee increased to Rs 550, the price of cooking oil increased by Rs 30 to Rs 560.

The market vendors said that the cost of Karachi-branded ghee had increased by an astounding Rs 120 over the past month, to Rs 500.

The Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI), which measures weekly inflation, increased by 0.28 percent for all consumer categories during the week ending October 17, according to a report released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on October 18.

In the aforementioned group, the SPI for the week under review was 319.79 points, compared to 318.91 points the previous week, according to the PBS statistics.

In the week under examination, the SPI for the combined consumption group increased by 15.02 percent compared to the same week last year.

51 important goods for all expenditure groups and 17 urban centers are covered by the weekly SPI with base year 2015–16 = 100.

Additionally, the SPI for the lowest consumption category, which is up to Rs 17,732, increased by 0.27 percent from 312.91 points last week to 313.74 points.

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