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Govt debt swells 34.1% in April to Rs58.6tr

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1 year ago

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  • Debt swells due to growing interest payments, rupee depreciation.
  • Debt rises by 22.5% in 10 months (July-April) of this fiscal year.
  • Govt is likely to set budget deficit target of 6.4% of GDP.

KARACHI: Owing to high funding requirements, a lack of dollar inflows, currency depreciation, and growing interest payments amid a tight monetary policy, the government’s debt grew 34.1% at the end of April from a year earlier, The News reported citing central bank’s data.

According to the data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the total debt reached Rs58.598 trillion as of April 30, compared with Rs43.705 in the same period last year. 

The debt increased by 2.6% month-on-month as it stood at Rs57.123 trillion in March.

The public debt is growing at a faster pace owing to the increasing financing needs of the government. The foreign currency inflows remained dried amid the stalled International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan programme. 

The centre was forced to take on more domestic debt as a result of the low revenue and the excessive expenditure requirements. Additionally, the weaker currency caused an increase in external debt measured in rupees.

The debt climbed by 22.5% in 10 months (July-April) of this fiscal year. It had come to Rs47.832 trillion by the end of June. According to the SBP’s data, the increase in public debt was caused by an increase in external debt, which is a result of currency depreciation. 

Over the course of a year, the rupee declined by about 53%. In April 2023, it was trading at 283 per dollar, up from 185 in the same month the year before.

At the end of April, the domestic debt surged by 26.4% year-on-year to Rs36.549 trillion. The domestic debt rose by 17.57% during the 10 months of this fiscal year. 

The foreign debt sharply increased by 49.1% to Rs22.050 trillion as of April from Rs14.791 trillion a year ago. The external debt grew by 31.6% in the period July–April fiscal year 2022-23.

Pakistan is caught in the debt trap because of its unsustainable levels of domestic debt and markup payments, according to analysts. The government can choose to restructure the debt in order to create fiscal space to boost the economy. 

However, there is a significant chance that the exercise may harm domestic banks and the economy as a whole.

‘Unrealistic revenue and fiscal deficit targets’

The government may set unrealistic revenue and fiscal deficit targets in the upcoming budget for the fiscal year 2023-24, according to analysts, who also expressed concern about rising interest costs for domestic debt.

The government is likely to set a tax revenue collection target of Rs9-9.2 trillion for FY2024 (8.6% of GDP), which is up 21% from the target of Rs7.5 trillion for FY23 and 29% higher than expected tax collection in the current fiscal year, said Topline Securities in a report.

“Total tax collection for FY23 is expected to clock in at Rs7-7.1 trillion below the target of Rs7.5 trillion due to the economic slowdown,” it said.

“Government is likely to set aside Rs7.6-8 trillion (7.1-7.5% of GDP) for interest payment for FY24 budget. This is against Rs5.2 trillion (6.2% of GDP) likely in FY23,” it added. 

Rising debt and record high-interest rates are responsible for a huge jump in markup payment from Rs3.2 trillion in FY22 to Rs8 trillion in FY24, an increase of 151% in two years limiting government to spend on development, health, education, etc, according to the report.

“This is alarming as markup expenses for FY24 will be 88% of total tax revenue compared to the last 10-year average of 48%,” it noted. 

For FY24, the government is likely to set a budget deficit target of 6.4% of GDP, or Rs6.8 trillion. 

“We believe that the main reason for the higher budget deficit in FY24 will be higher markup costs and inaccessibility to bumper FY24 SBP profits due to changes in the SBP Act in early 2022,” the Topline report stated.

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Dar chairs the CCOP meeting; Blue World’s bid offer of Rs.10 billion is rejected.

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The Foreign Minister/Deputy Prime Minister chaired the Cabinet Committee on Privatization meeting.

Other committee members who attended the conference included the Federal Secretaries of several Divisions, the Ministers of Finance and Revenue, Industry and Food, Commerce, Power, and Privatization.

The CCOP took the PC Board’s recommendation into consideration and suggested that Blue World’s bid of 10 billion rupees for the sale of 60% of PIACL’s shares be rejected. The bid was rejected by the CCOP, who chose to follow the PC Board’s advice.

The government’s determination to sell out PIACL through government-to-government or privatization was reaffirmed by the CCOP.

The CCOP was pleased with the Aviation Division’s evaluation of PIACL’s sound financial standing.

Additionally, the CCOP established a committee, chaired by the Minister of State for Finance, to assess potential transaction possibilities for the privatization of the Roosevelt Hotel and the appropriate modes of adoption in light of existing legal rules.

Prior to its subsequent meeting, the CCOP also ordered that all difficulties be resolved and an agreement for the selling of services to an international hotel be concluded.

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The KSE-100 Index has surged by 790 points, resulting in an all-time peak for the stock exchange.

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The benchmark KSE-100 Index increased by 790 points, marking a new all-time high for the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) at 94,982 points.

The record-breaking performance underscores a surge of optimism and investor confidence in the stock market.

As investors responded to favorable economic signals, the market experienced a significant increase of over 500 points in early trading. Later, the KSE-100 Index reached another record level of 94,786 points after adding 594 points to its upward trajectory.

This positive development comes as the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) foreign exchange reserves saw an increase of $84 million, reaching $11.26 billion during the week ending November 8, according to data released by the central bank on Thursday.

This represents an increase of 0.75% from the previous week. In addition, the nation’s total liquid foreign reserves experienced a modest increase, increasing by $33.7 million or 0.21% week-on-week to $15.97 billion.

In contrast, commercial banks’ reserves experienced a decline of $50.3 million or 1.06%, ultimately settling at $4.71 billion.

Furthermore, the economic team of Pakistan has expressed confidence in the discussions with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Minister of State for Finance Ali Pervaiz Malik, in an exclusive conversation with Samaa TV, claimed talks were moving in a positive direction.

Highlighting improvements in Pakistan’s economic conditions, Malik noted substantial progress over the past six months to a year. He emphasized that Pakistan’s current economic situation has seen significant enhancement, with a reduced current account deficit of only $100 million in the first quarter, a reflection of the government’s strategy to increase remittances and boost exports.

Malik shared that discussions with the IMF are primarily focused on external financing, and while there have been speculations about a potential mini-budget or an increase in the petroleum levy, he clarified that these are currently premature considerations.

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Positive IMF negotiations propel KSE-100 Index above 94,000 points

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As a result of investors’ optimism about the reported progress in the continuing talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) experienced a robust surge.

The benchmark KSE-100 Index of the PSX, which tracks market sentiment, rose 713 points to a new record high of 94,068 points, breaking above the 94,000-point barrier, as the trading session began.

Early in the day, the stock market began its upward trajectory as the KSE-100 Index steadily rose, gaining 574 points to reach 93,932 points. A possible agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) might lead to more fiscal stability and back Pakistan’s economic reforms, which is why investors are so optimistic about the country’s future.

Officials from the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) informed the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday that the government would not be introducing a mini-budget and would instead continue to aim to collect Rs12,970 billion in taxes each year.

In line with continuing discussions with the Fund, FBR sources revealed that petroleum goods will not be subject to the General Sales Tax (GST).

The fact that Pakistan’s tax-to-GDP ratio has increased from 8.8% to 10.3%, a 1.5% gain viewed as a favorable sign of Pakistan’s fiscal policies, has reportedly pleased the IMF, who has voiced satisfaction at Pakistan’s recent economic performance.

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