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Analysts predict Moderna to meet COVID-19 forecast for 2023

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Moderna is expected to achieve the lower end of its sales target for this year as it only needs to cater to a small section of the private market with its COVID-19 vaccine to attain that goal, as per the industry experts. 

According to four analysts who spoke with Reuters, it is possible for Moderna to achieve $2 billion in sales from the private market in 2023 if about 20 million people are vaccinated with its updated COVID-19 vaccine.

The company has said it expects total US COVID-19 vaccine demand to be as much as 100 million doses in the fall season.

Moderna predicts $6-8 billion in COVID-19 vaccine sales in 2023, with $2-4 billion coming from the commercial market. Pfizer’s full-year outlook for COVID-19 vaccine sales was lowered by about $2 billion due to lower-than-expected vaccination rates.

Moderna’s shares have fallen by some 22% since its larger rival’s warning.

“It is unlikely Moderna will have a negative fall (in its sales outlook) like Pfizer because they started off much more conservative,” said Oppenheimer & Co analyst Hartaj Singh.

Michael Yee, an analyst from Jefferies, said that while the rollout of the new shots was initially slow, it seems to be picking up, citing recent data. Yee expects most of the demand to come from people aged 65 and over.

Moderna reports third-quarter results on Thursday, two days after Pfizer posted its first quarterly loss since 2019 due to a large charge to account for the US government returning millions of doses of its COVID-19 antiviral treatment Paxlovid, as well as an inventory of its COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty.

Moderna, a Cambridge, Massachusetts-based company, has seen its research and development (R&D) costs increase by 62% to $1.1 billion in Q2 2021, despite the COVID-19 vaccine being its only marketed product, as it aims to introduce other products.

The company’s RSV vaccine, which it aims to launch in the US in 2024, was found to be 82.4% effective in older adults with three or more symptoms in a late-stage trial. It would compete with recently approved vaccines from Pfizer and GSK.

Data from a late-stage study of Moderna’s flu vaccine with an updated formulation released in September showed it generated a stronger immune response against all four A and B strains of the influenza virus compared to traditional flu shots.

Moderna’s broader mRNA-based respiratory pipeline, which includes RSV and flu vaccines, is expected to reach $10 billion to $12 billion in sales, which will reduce expenses and bring R&D stability by 2025, Yee said.

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Dar chairs the CCOP meeting; Blue World’s bid offer of Rs.10 billion is rejected.

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The Foreign Minister/Deputy Prime Minister chaired the Cabinet Committee on Privatization meeting.

Other committee members who attended the conference included the Federal Secretaries of several Divisions, the Ministers of Finance and Revenue, Industry and Food, Commerce, Power, and Privatization.

The CCOP took the PC Board’s recommendation into consideration and suggested that Blue World’s bid of 10 billion rupees for the sale of 60% of PIACL’s shares be rejected. The bid was rejected by the CCOP, who chose to follow the PC Board’s advice.

The government’s determination to sell out PIACL through government-to-government or privatization was reaffirmed by the CCOP.

The CCOP was pleased with the Aviation Division’s evaluation of PIACL’s sound financial standing.

Additionally, the CCOP established a committee, chaired by the Minister of State for Finance, to assess potential transaction possibilities for the privatization of the Roosevelt Hotel and the appropriate modes of adoption in light of existing legal rules.

Prior to its subsequent meeting, the CCOP also ordered that all difficulties be resolved and an agreement for the selling of services to an international hotel be concluded.

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The KSE-100 Index has surged by 790 points, resulting in an all-time peak for the stock exchange.

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The benchmark KSE-100 Index increased by 790 points, marking a new all-time high for the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) at 94,982 points.

The record-breaking performance underscores a surge of optimism and investor confidence in the stock market.

As investors responded to favorable economic signals, the market experienced a significant increase of over 500 points in early trading. Later, the KSE-100 Index reached another record level of 94,786 points after adding 594 points to its upward trajectory.

This positive development comes as the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) foreign exchange reserves saw an increase of $84 million, reaching $11.26 billion during the week ending November 8, according to data released by the central bank on Thursday.

This represents an increase of 0.75% from the previous week. In addition, the nation’s total liquid foreign reserves experienced a modest increase, increasing by $33.7 million or 0.21% week-on-week to $15.97 billion.

In contrast, commercial banks’ reserves experienced a decline of $50.3 million or 1.06%, ultimately settling at $4.71 billion.

Furthermore, the economic team of Pakistan has expressed confidence in the discussions with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Minister of State for Finance Ali Pervaiz Malik, in an exclusive conversation with Samaa TV, claimed talks were moving in a positive direction.

Highlighting improvements in Pakistan’s economic conditions, Malik noted substantial progress over the past six months to a year. He emphasized that Pakistan’s current economic situation has seen significant enhancement, with a reduced current account deficit of only $100 million in the first quarter, a reflection of the government’s strategy to increase remittances and boost exports.

Malik shared that discussions with the IMF are primarily focused on external financing, and while there have been speculations about a potential mini-budget or an increase in the petroleum levy, he clarified that these are currently premature considerations.

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Positive IMF negotiations propel KSE-100 Index above 94,000 points

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As a result of investors’ optimism about the reported progress in the continuing talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) experienced a robust surge.

The benchmark KSE-100 Index of the PSX, which tracks market sentiment, rose 713 points to a new record high of 94,068 points, breaking above the 94,000-point barrier, as the trading session began.

Early in the day, the stock market began its upward trajectory as the KSE-100 Index steadily rose, gaining 574 points to reach 93,932 points. A possible agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) might lead to more fiscal stability and back Pakistan’s economic reforms, which is why investors are so optimistic about the country’s future.

Officials from the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) informed the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday that the government would not be introducing a mini-budget and would instead continue to aim to collect Rs12,970 billion in taxes each year.

In line with continuing discussions with the Fund, FBR sources revealed that petroleum goods will not be subject to the General Sales Tax (GST).

The fact that Pakistan’s tax-to-GDP ratio has increased from 8.8% to 10.3%, a 1.5% gain viewed as a favorable sign of Pakistan’s fiscal policies, has reportedly pleased the IMF, who has voiced satisfaction at Pakistan’s recent economic performance.

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