Business

Markets put money on ECB rate hike amid rising European bond yields

Published

1 year ago

Farwa

Traders boosted bets for a European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike this week, sending Italy’s 10-year bond yield to a six-month high after a Reuters report that the central bank believes inflation will continue to hover around 3% next year.

The day’s main macroeconomic event for global markets is US inflation data released at 1230 GMT which will help shape the Federal Reserve’s rate decision later this month.

But there is plenty happening in Europe too, and traders are also bracing for the ECB’s meeting on Thursday – current market pricing reflects roughly a 75% chance the central bank will raise rates by 25 basis points, up from around a 40% chance on Monday and just 25% a week ago.

A further rate hike this year is now fully priced in.

The rise in rate expectations on Wednesday was, said Jan von Gerich chief analyst at Nordea, a result of a Reuters report late on Tuesday which said, citing a source with direct knowledge of the matter, the ECB’s quarterly projections will put inflation north of 3% in 2024.

That would support the case for a further rate increase, though the source said the rate decision was still a close call.

A pick up in market expectations also makes a rate hike more likely.

“The ECB isn’t as sensitive to market expectations as say the Fed is, but it is not totally insensitive so this kind of pricing on the margin increases the odds of hiking,” von Gerich said.

“It isn’t conclusive, but they do look at market expectations and worry that if they disappoint too much then you could see rates fall, and financing conditions ease, which they don’t want to at the moment.”

The yield on Italy’s 10-year bond hit 4.452% in early trading, its highest since mid-March, and was last at 4.44%, up 3 basis points (bps) on the day.

Germany’s 10-year yield rose 2.5 bps at 2.67%, meaning that the spread between the German and Italian 10-year yields touched 178 bps, its widest since June.

Bond yields move inversely to prices and higher rates from the ECB would typically weigh more heavily on the more-indebted European periphery.

Some market participants expect an acceleration of the ECB’s quantitative tightening measures – in which the central bank reduces its bond portfolio – to hurt peripheral bond prices.

Shorter-dated yields, more sensitive to interest rate expectations, also rose. Germany’s two-year yield was up 3 bps at 3.16%, having briefly touched a one-month high, and Italy’s two-year yield touched a two-month high and was last 7 bps higher at 3.9%.

Business

With its second-largest surge ever, PSX approaches 114,000 points.

Published

2 days ago

Farwa

Driven by renewed activity from both private and government financial institutions, the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) saw its second-largest rally in history on Monday.

The market regained many important levels in a single trading session as it rose with previously unheard-of momentum.

Intraday trading saw a top increase of 4,676 points, and the PSX’s benchmark KSE-100 Index gained 4,411 points to settle at 113,924 points. This impressive rebound demonstrated significant investor confidence by reestablishing the 100,000, 111,000, 112,000, and 113,000-point levels.

The market also saw the 114,000-point limit reestablished during the trading session.

The positive tendency was reflected when the market’s heavyweight shares touched its upper circuits. Among the most busiest trading sessions in recent memory, an astounding 85.78 billion shares worth a total of Rs55 billion were exchanged.

Experts credited the spike to heightened institutional investor activity and hope for macroeconomic recovery. Considered a major market recovery, the rally demonstrated the market’s tenacity and development potential.

Business

In interbank trade, the Pakistani rupee beats the US dollar.

Published

1 week ago

Farwa

In the international exchange market, the US dollar has continued to weaken in relation to the Pakistani rupee.

The dollar fell to Rs278.10 from Rs278.17 at the beginning of interbank trading, according to currency dealers, a seven paisa loss.

In the meantime, there was a lot of turbulence in the stock market, but it recovered and moved into the positive zone. The KSE-100 index recovered momentum and reached 116,000 points after soaring 1,300 points.

Both currency and stock market swings, according to analysts, are a reflection of ongoing market adjustments and economic uncertainty.

Business

Phase II of CPEC: China-Pakistan Partnership Enters a New Era

Published

1 week ago

Farwa

The cornerstone of economic cooperation between the two brothers and all-weather friends is still the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the initiative’s flagship project.

In contrast to reports of a slowdown, recent events indicate a renewed vigour and strategic emphasis on pushing the second phase of CPEC, known as CPEC Phase-2, according to the Ministry of Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives.

According to the statement, this crucial stage seeks to reshape the foundation of bilateral ties via increased cooperation, cutting-edge technology transfer, and revolutionary socioeconomic initiatives.

Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal is leading Pakistan’s participation in a number of high-profile gatherings in China, such as the 3rd Forum on China-Indian Ocean Region Development Cooperation in Kunming and the High-Level Seminar on CPEC-2 in Beijing.

His involvement demonstrates Pakistan’s commitment to reviving CPEC, resolving outstanding concerns, and developing a strong phase-2 roadmap that considers both countries’ long-term prosperity.

At the core of these interactions is China’s steadfast determination to turn CPEC into a strategic alliance that promotes development, progress, and connectivity.

Instead of being marginalised, CPEC is developing into a multifaceted framework with five main thematic corridors: the Opening-Up/Regional Connectivity Corridor, the Innovation Corridor, the Green Corridor, the Growth Corridor, and the Livelihood-Enhancing Corridor.

With the help of projects like these, the two countries will fortify their partnership, and CPEC phase-2 will become a model of global economic integration and collaboration that benefits not just China and Pakistan but the entire region.