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IMF-friendly budget crucial to convince lender to revive stalled programme

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  • “Essential to restore proper functioning of forex market,” IMF says.
  • Official says passing budget as per IMF’s objectives also important.
  • FinMin Ishaq Dar will unveil budget for fiscal year 2023-24 on Friday.

Pakistan has to satisfy the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on three counts, starting with a budget to be presented on Friday, before its board will review whether to release at least some of the $2.5 billion still to be disbursed under a lending programme that will expire at the end of this month, an official said.

Esther Perez Ruiz, the IMF’s resident representative for Pakistan, said on Thursday that there was only time for one last IMF board review before the scheduled end of the $6.5 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF).

Pakistan has barely enough currency reserves to cover one month’s imports. It had hoped to have $1.1 billion of the funds released in November — but the IMF has insisted on a number of conditions being met before it makes any more disbursements.

“As communicated to the authorities, there can be one remaining Board meeting under the current EFF at end-June,” Ruiz said in an email response to Reuters.

“To pave the way for a final review under the current EFF, it is essential to restore the proper functioning of the FX market, pass an FY24 budget consistent with programme objectives, and secure firm and credible financing commitments to close the $6 billion gap ahead of the Board,” she added.

With just over three weeks to go before the EFF expires, there is a lot the government has to do.

The IMF had tasked Pakistan with securing external financing commitments for $6 billion from other sources, but so far it has only obtained commitments for $4 billion, mostly from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Under pressure to shift to a more market-determined exchange rate regime and shut down an unofficial currency market, Pakistan removed daily limits on fluctuations earlier this year, but analysts suspect that the authorities are still trying to manage the exchange rate, out of fear that the rupee could fall too far.

Ruiz laid out the IMF’s broad expectations for the upcoming budget.

“The focus of discussions over the FY24 budget is to balance the need to strengthen debt sustainability prospects while creating space to increase social spending,” she said.

More such spending would defray the impact of inflationary pressures on Pakistan’s most vulnerable people, Ruiz added, but the government needed to make more progress to identify spending and revenue-generating measures in order to achieve this.

The country is reeling from an economic crisis with inflation running at a record 37.97% in May.

The government has imposed taxes, raised energy tariffs and scaled back subsidies in an attempt to persuade the IMF to unlock funding, and its central bank has also raised policy interest rates to a record 21%.

The IMF has conducted just eight of the ten reviews that were to take place during the EFF, and the last one took place in August last year.

Pakistan is set to announce its economic survey with key statistics, later on Thursday, ahead of the budget scheduled for June 9.

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Dar chairs the CCOP meeting; Blue World’s bid offer of Rs.10 billion is rejected.

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The Foreign Minister/Deputy Prime Minister chaired the Cabinet Committee on Privatization meeting.

Other committee members who attended the conference included the Federal Secretaries of several Divisions, the Ministers of Finance and Revenue, Industry and Food, Commerce, Power, and Privatization.

The CCOP took the PC Board’s recommendation into consideration and suggested that Blue World’s bid of 10 billion rupees for the sale of 60% of PIACL’s shares be rejected. The bid was rejected by the CCOP, who chose to follow the PC Board’s advice.

The government’s determination to sell out PIACL through government-to-government or privatization was reaffirmed by the CCOP.

The CCOP was pleased with the Aviation Division’s evaluation of PIACL’s sound financial standing.

Additionally, the CCOP established a committee, chaired by the Minister of State for Finance, to assess potential transaction possibilities for the privatization of the Roosevelt Hotel and the appropriate modes of adoption in light of existing legal rules.

Prior to its subsequent meeting, the CCOP also ordered that all difficulties be resolved and an agreement for the selling of services to an international hotel be concluded.

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The KSE-100 Index has surged by 790 points, resulting in an all-time peak for the stock exchange.

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The benchmark KSE-100 Index increased by 790 points, marking a new all-time high for the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) at 94,982 points.

The record-breaking performance underscores a surge of optimism and investor confidence in the stock market.

As investors responded to favorable economic signals, the market experienced a significant increase of over 500 points in early trading. Later, the KSE-100 Index reached another record level of 94,786 points after adding 594 points to its upward trajectory.

This positive development comes as the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) foreign exchange reserves saw an increase of $84 million, reaching $11.26 billion during the week ending November 8, according to data released by the central bank on Thursday.

This represents an increase of 0.75% from the previous week. In addition, the nation’s total liquid foreign reserves experienced a modest increase, increasing by $33.7 million or 0.21% week-on-week to $15.97 billion.

In contrast, commercial banks’ reserves experienced a decline of $50.3 million or 1.06%, ultimately settling at $4.71 billion.

Furthermore, the economic team of Pakistan has expressed confidence in the discussions with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Minister of State for Finance Ali Pervaiz Malik, in an exclusive conversation with Samaa TV, claimed talks were moving in a positive direction.

Highlighting improvements in Pakistan’s economic conditions, Malik noted substantial progress over the past six months to a year. He emphasized that Pakistan’s current economic situation has seen significant enhancement, with a reduced current account deficit of only $100 million in the first quarter, a reflection of the government’s strategy to increase remittances and boost exports.

Malik shared that discussions with the IMF are primarily focused on external financing, and while there have been speculations about a potential mini-budget or an increase in the petroleum levy, he clarified that these are currently premature considerations.

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Positive IMF negotiations propel KSE-100 Index above 94,000 points

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As a result of investors’ optimism about the reported progress in the continuing talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) experienced a robust surge.

The benchmark KSE-100 Index of the PSX, which tracks market sentiment, rose 713 points to a new record high of 94,068 points, breaking above the 94,000-point barrier, as the trading session began.

Early in the day, the stock market began its upward trajectory as the KSE-100 Index steadily rose, gaining 574 points to reach 93,932 points. A possible agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) might lead to more fiscal stability and back Pakistan’s economic reforms, which is why investors are so optimistic about the country’s future.

Officials from the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) informed the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday that the government would not be introducing a mini-budget and would instead continue to aim to collect Rs12,970 billion in taxes each year.

In line with continuing discussions with the Fund, FBR sources revealed that petroleum goods will not be subject to the General Sales Tax (GST).

The fact that Pakistan’s tax-to-GDP ratio has increased from 8.8% to 10.3%, a 1.5% gain viewed as a favorable sign of Pakistan’s fiscal policies, has reportedly pleased the IMF, who has voiced satisfaction at Pakistan’s recent economic performance.

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