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11-month economic slump ends, as exports increase in Sept

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  • 4.2% increase was recorded in Sept this year.
  • In Sept last year, exports stood at $2.437 billion.
  • Imports fell sharply by 25.3% to $3.95 billion.

ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported an increase in exports by 1.15% to $2.465 billion in September 2023, for the first time in 11 months, overturning a lengthy slump attributed to the country’s dwindling economy.

According to PBS data reported by The News, the exports stood at $2.437 billion in the same month last year. The growth, it added, was modest but significant, as it happened in the wake of 11 consecutive months of year-on-year reductions ranging from 3.25% to 26.2%.

As the exports rose by 4.2% over those in August 2023 which stood at $2.366 billion, the turnaround was apparent on a monthly basis, the PBS mentioned in its report.

The shift was seen last month in August when the pace of decline slowed to single-digit from earlier sharp declines seen since October last year. Notably, year-on-year in October 2022, exports reduced by 3.25%, November 17.6%, December 16.3%, January 14.15%, February 22.7%, March 14.6%, April 26.2%, May 16.2%, June 19.1%, July 8.09%, August 4.7%, but now in September it increased by 1.15%.

The imports fell sharply by 25.3% to $3.95 billion in September 2023 from a year ago, mainly due to lower oil prices, reduced demand for machinery and raw materials, and tight import controls by the government to curb the trade deficit.

On a monthly basis, imports dropped by 12.7% from $4.5 billion in August 2023. As a result, the trade deficit narrowed by 47.9% to $1.49 billion in September 2023 from $2.86 billion in September 2022. In August 2023, the deficit was $2.16 billion.

In the first quarter of the current fiscal year (July-September 2023-24), exports fell by 3.8% to $6.9 billion, while its imports declined by 25.4% to $12.2 billion, compared with the same period of the previous fiscal year. The trade deficit shrank by 42.15% to $5.29 billion in the first quarter of FY24 from $9.16 billion in the first quarter of FY23.

In FY23, Pakistan’s trade deficit fell by 43% to $27.55 billion from $48.35 billion in FY22, as total exports dipped by 12.7% to $27.7 billion and imports contracted by 31% to $55.3 billion.

The data also showed that the trade deficit in services widened by 174% to $463 million in July-August 2023-24 from $169 million in July-August 2022-23 due to higher demand for foreign services as the economy reopened.

From July to August 2023-24, Pakistan spent $1.6 billion on the services it hired from abroad and offered its services of $1.14 billion. Similarly, in the same period last year, exports were $1.1 billion and imports of $1.28 billion. During these two months, exports increased by 2% while imports up by 24.7%. In August, services exports were valued at $600 million, while imports amounted to $789 million, resulting in a deficit of $189 million.

In July 2023, exports were at $535 million, imports at $809 million, and the deficit at $274 million. During the month under review, services exports increased by 12.14%, and imports decreased by 2.45% compared to the previous month. Comparing August 2023’services trade performance to the same month of the previous year, exports were up by 2.34%, and imports also increased by 9.1%.

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In interbank trade, the Pakistani rupee beats the US dollar.

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In the international exchange market, the US dollar has continued to weaken in relation to the Pakistani rupee.

The dollar fell to Rs278.10 from Rs278.17 at the beginning of interbank trading, according to currency dealers, a seven paisa loss.

In the meantime, there was a lot of turbulence in the stock market, but it recovered and moved into the positive zone. The KSE-100 index recovered momentum and reached 116,000 points after soaring 1,300 points.

Both currency and stock market swings, according to analysts, are a reflection of ongoing market adjustments and economic uncertainty.

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Phase II of CPEC: China-Pakistan Partnership Enters a New Era

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The cornerstone of economic cooperation between the two brothers and all-weather friends is still the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the initiative’s flagship project.

In contrast to reports of a slowdown, recent events indicate a renewed vigour and strategic emphasis on pushing the second phase of CPEC, known as CPEC Phase-2, according to the Ministry of Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives.

According to the statement, this crucial stage seeks to reshape the foundation of bilateral ties via increased cooperation, cutting-edge technology transfer, and revolutionary socioeconomic initiatives.

Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal is leading Pakistan’s participation in a number of high-profile gatherings in China, such as the 3rd Forum on China-Indian Ocean Region Development Cooperation in Kunming and the High-Level Seminar on CPEC-2 in Beijing.

His involvement demonstrates Pakistan’s commitment to reviving CPEC, resolving outstanding concerns, and developing a strong phase-2 roadmap that considers both countries’ long-term prosperity.

At the core of these interactions is China’s steadfast determination to turn CPEC into a strategic alliance that promotes development, progress, and connectivity.

Instead of being marginalised, CPEC is developing into a multifaceted framework with five main thematic corridors: the Opening-Up/Regional Connectivity Corridor, the Innovation Corridor, the Green Corridor, the Growth Corridor, and the Livelihood-Enhancing Corridor.

With the help of projects like these, the two countries will fortify their partnership, and CPEC phase-2 will become a model of global economic integration and collaboration that benefits not just China and Pakistan but the entire region.

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The inflation rate in Pakistan dropped to its lowest level.

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On December 2, core inflation as determined by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) significantly slowed, falling to 4.9% in November 2024 from 7.2 percent in October 2024.

The CPI-based inflation rate for the same month last year (November 2023) was 29.2%, according to PBS data.

Compared to a 1.2% gain in the prior month, it increased by 0.5% month over month in November 2024.

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